Key Moments:
- Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD) has signaled openness to acquiring prediction market companies, according to a company executive.
- The firm currently partners with Kalshi in the event contracts arena and holds $4.2 billion in cash as of June 30.
- Polymarket’s estimated $9 billion-$10 billion valuation may place it out of reach, but Kalshi’s $5 billion valuation could make it a more feasible target.
Robinhood Considers New Moves in Prediction Markets
Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD) is exploring opportunities to deepen its involvement in the rapidly expanding prediction market sector. The company already operates in event contracts through its Kalshi partnership. However, JB Mackenzie, vice president and general manager of futures and international, said Robinhood is watching for potential acquisitions in the space.
“We as a firm are going to be looking to see if there is an acquisition that’s available,” the executive told the news agency. “I’m always looking to see if there’s something of interest, if there is, we’ll pursue it and see if it’s the right fit.”
Mackenzie also highlighted the strength of Robinhood’s engineering team, suggesting the company could potentially build its own prediction market solutions in the future.
Robinhood’s Next Frontier: Prediction Markets
After surpassing $4B in 2025 trading volume, Robinhood’s prediction market experiment is starting to look like more than a side project.
The firm is now exploring a European expansion, but regulation remains the defining challenge.… pic.twitter.com/UQR4j0wq8g
— Senior 🛡🦇🔊 (@SeniorDeFi) October 7, 2025
Speculation Surrounds Potential Acquisition Targets
Mackenzie did not name any specific targets. However, the prediction market industry has recently seen a surge in acquisition interest. Last month, Novig — a US peer-to-peer sports prediction market — reportedly attracted takeover interest from Kalshi, Polymarket, and other unnamed parties. Robinhood’s involvement remains unconfirmed.
With $4.2 billion in cash as of June 30 and a 277% stock gain this year, Robinhood has strong leverage for major deals. Based on current reports, Polymarket’s recent $9 billion to $10 billion valuation may exceed Robinhood’s acquisition appetite, whereas Kalshi’s $5 billion valuation could make it a more accessible option. It is noted, however, that neither company is currently indicated as a willing seller, nor is it necessary for Robinhood to target multi-billion dollar deals to expand in prediction markets.
| Company | Estimated Valuation | Current Relationship with Robinhood |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | $9B – $10B | None |
| Kalshi | $5B | Partner |
Potential Impact on Kalshi Partnership
It remains uncertain whether a future acquisition or proprietary platform would affect the partnership between Robinhood and Kalshi. Robinhood clients are believed to drive a significant portion of Kalshi’s daily volume, estimated at 25% to 35%.
Last month, Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley stated that Robinhood’s prediction markets business, which shares economics with Kalshi equally, is projected to become a $200 million enterprise. This potential growth area may motivate Robinhood to commit further resources or consider direct ownership of its prediction market offerings.
Looking Abroad and Ahead
There are indications that Robinhood is also evaluating international expansion for its prediction markets presence. In late September, Mackenzie noted the company is reviewing opportunities outside the United States, without referencing Kalshi’s involvement. Following its most recent funding, Kalshi announced intentions to expand availability to 140 countries.
- Author
Daniel Williams
